I no more use this site.

The blogs are:

Tata Global Beverages: Excellent Company but expensive stock

http://indusfinance.com/2011/03/09/tata-global-beverages-excellent-company-but-expensive-stock/

Central Bank Rights Issues: Doesn’t look attractive

http://indusfinance.com/2011/03/18/central-bank-rights-issues-doesn%e2%80%99t-look-attractive/

Please take a look.

Andhra Bank Analysis – http://indusfinance.com/2011/03/02/andhra-bank-analysis-and-discussion/

Direct Tax Code – http://indusfinance.com/2011/02/14/direct-tax-code-dtc-and-its-impact-on-income-and-saving/

Keep reading http://indusfinance.com, new home of this blog.

Welcome to Indus Finance – A vertical Grass Initiative

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Last year was exceptionally good for central bank of India when its productivity increased, business per employee shot up, and operational and services metrics showed much improvement. Let’s take a look at the numbers to find out the details.

Based on these data, the following ratios will give a true picture of the bank.

Let’s analyse the positives and negatives of the bank.

Positive points;

• Return on equity is excellent at 23% and has gone from 9% to this level in last 4 years. This is phenomenal growth.
• CASA ratio is good at 35%. This is bigger than ICICI bank’s CASA ratio. High ratio provides banks’ leverage to lend at higher cost and thus earn higher revenue. The bank has launched campaign to mobilize deposits that will further increase the CASA ratio.
• Credit deposit ratio is fine at 65%. However, the bank can afford to increase it. SBI has CDR of 74%.
• Growth in deposit, credit, and net profit has shown excellent growth in last 4 years. The CAGR of net profit, deposit, and advances are 42%, 25%, and 29% respectively
• PB ratio of 1.5 is reasonable.
• The company is paying good dividend consistently.
• CAR is fine as this is a regulatory requirement and most banks meet this requirement (at least 9%).

Concern Areas:

• Interest spread is less at 2.8%. This value is not as bad as IDBI but there is much scope for improvement. SBI has interest spread of 3.8%.
• Net profit margin is average at 7.7%. Usually well run banks have NPM greater than this value. Bank of Baroda has 15% while SBI is at 11%.
• ROA is bad at 0.58%. Banks normally have around 1% as ROA.
• Non-interest income is increasing every year, albeit slowly.
• NPAs look manageable.
• The net interest margin is 1.86%, reduced from 1.97% in 2009. The same for Bank of Baroda is 2.74%. The NIM, however, has come down from 2009 because of increased cost of deposits.

The central bank of India is valued at lower PE than its counterparts. This valuation is justified because of its asset quality, NIM, and other factors. The bank however is working to get some of its operational metrics in order. Hope to see the changes reflect in the numbers by next year. At a PE close to 6 is certainly tempting but if we look at the fundamentals, central bank of India is trading at a PE which is well justified.

The quarterly results in FY2011 look promising. If we look at the EPS for the last 3 quarters of FY2011, it is 27.7 already. This has crossed the EPS for the year 2010. FY2011 EPS can be in the range of 30-35 and this makes central bank of India’s forward PE at 4-5. This is a good proposition. However, the growth of bank and appreciation of share price depends a lot on how central bank of India plans to improve NIM, de-risk growing credit deposit ratio, and improve ROA.

Disclaimer: This site gives opinions on companies that trade on BSE and NSE. This doesn’t give any suggestion on whether to buy and sell. Investors are requested to go by their own judgment.

REC covers end to end power finance and consulting, starting from planning, financing to monitoring and change control. With enormous demand for power, it has a list of clients that are top power companies in the country. It has been instrumental in powering rural India’s growth by distribution and transmission of much needed electricity.

REC is well placed to reap the benefit of increased emphasis on power and infrastructure by the Government. It sanctioned 45000 crore (about $10b) in FY 2010.

REC’s financial muscle has enabled it to be on top performer in the Government owned companies list. It had phenomenal listing in the bourses and since then the company has given good returns to the investors. Let’s look at the financials in details to understand the company in detail.

The data looks excellent. Based on this data, let’s look at the performance of the company in terms of fundamental ratios.

We will follow the same pattern; discuss positive points and concern areas and few details such as opportunity and risks. The investors then can take better decision.

Positive Points:

• The company is fairly valued at the PE of 12.47
• Net profit margin is excellent at about 30%. NTPC, another power giant has net profit margin about 18%. In fact this is improving for last 4 years.
• The ROE is attractive at 18%.
• The company is paying dividend consistently. The average dividend payout ratio in last 5 years is excellent at 35%. The yield at current market price is about 2.57%.
• Current ratio and quick ratio are excellent.
• The revenue and profit growth are very good. Both exceed 30%.
• EPS is good but that is because of high debt on the balance sheet of the company.
• This is also a Navaratna by Government of India but let’s not read too much into this. Most of our Navratnas’ have not been able to satisfy investors’ expectation.
• The loan given by REC is of high quality and the NPA is negligible at 0.03% in FY2010. REC’s loan while safe to a large extent, are concentrated on a very small number of borrowers.

Concern Areas:

• Cash flow is throughout negative for last 5 years.
• While the debt look high but this is normal for financial companies. In case of REC, it takes loan from Government at a cheaper cost and lends to private and public companies at some spread.

There are many good points in REC but the lending to public sector and state electricity board is sign of worry. The company should be able to manage with it as India is slated to grow and the demand for power is all set to touch new highs. While the potential growth and emphasis on power by the Government makes it an attractive investment, we should keep in mind the following risks.

This company is Government owned and hence has all the risk that a typical Government owned company in India has. Its performance depends heavily the GoI’s policy and hence susceptible to irresponsible action of the Government (like free electricity etc.).

The company’s loan to top 10 customers account for about 80% of the loan disbursed. This is a big risk because any default from these borrowers will impact financial stability of REC.

The biggest risk we may encounter is the fact that majority of REC is owned by the Government and power is a political issue and the Government acts very irresponsibly when it comes to power. We have seen the deleterious effect on economy because of free power schemes. Moreover, Government may also force REC to provide loan to other public sectors even if the other public sector firms are not on a sound footing. In fact, almost all the loans that REC has lent is to public sector electricity companies and state electricity boards.

Lastly, most of the Navratna’s are hyped up story. The Navrantas got their time under the sun because of monopoly and restrictive trade policies of the Government in license raj time. In today’s scenario, maintaining the lead will be difficult. REC can very well prove all of us wrong and do wonders for investors. However, as far as history is concerned, Government owned firms rarely have created wealth for investors.

Disclaimer: This site gives opinions on companies that trade on BSE and NSE. This doesn’t give any suggestion on whether to buy and sell. Investors are requested to go by their own judgment.

Lack of liquidity or liquidity trap is bad for a market and economy. It essentially discourages people from investing and consuming. Central banks and Governments reduce the interest rate to increase consumption and borrowing. This keeps the economy going. There are situations when the interest rate is close to zero and there may not be any scope of further reducing the interest rate. In this situation, quantitative easing is the only option left with central bank to improve liquidity in the system.

Hence quantitative easing is the last resort to central banks and the Governments. In quantitative easing, the central bank prints new money and buys Government bonds and other financial assets from commercial banks. As a result of it, commercial banks acquire money which can be lent to borrowers for investment, business expansion, or consumption. This is supposed to spur the growth, improve liquidity in the market, and pull out the country from economic recession. One of the unintended consequences of quantitative easing is rise in inflation which can kill the purpose of it if not handled effectively.

Impact on Emerging market

Let’s analyse the situation here. US Federal Bank prints $500b – $1000b and infuses commercial banks with it. The commercial banks will lend this money to companies and individuals. Where will the companies and individuals go to invest this money? Where will the investors and borrowers find higher yield? Developed economies will certainly not give high yield because most of them are suffering from deep slowdown.

American manufacturing and service industry is saturated. The issue is not having money to fuel the growth but the issue in America is not having ample scope of growth. American consumers have everything. There is nothing they can add new to their consumption. They can only replace one thing from another but this will not encourage growth. This will not provide returns to industry and investors.

The easy availability of money will soon find its way to emerging markets where the growth is good and returns are high. Let’s analyse where this money can go in emerging market.

Manufacturing Sector:

Chinese manufacturing sector is overflowing with products. It hardly has any capacity to absorb new expansion and plans. Indian Manufacturing sector is not big enough to absorb QE2 money. Moreover, despite India’s focus on infrastructure, the underlying issues are too complex that foreign investors will risk their money. The third reason why the money will not go into manufacturing is the fact that China is taking steps to cool off its economy.

Services Sector:

Services sector, such as biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, do look lucrative. These industries have long gestation period. The new money may not flow to this sector as well. In fact, the quantity may be very low. The other point is that most of emerging markets’ service economy is based in export to developed market.

Currency:

The pressure on currency will increase as slush of American dollar will depreciate and dollar will become cheaper. This will make export to United States much expensive thus impacting the emerging market where dependence on export is fairly significant.

Stock Market:

Most of the QE2 money will end of in stock markets as speculative investment. The stock markets will go up. In fact, the market is bullish for last 1 year and going strong. This will create stock market bubble which is dangerous for the economy of emerging market. It will also depend on what is the amount of QE2. The market has factored some of it but if the amount is big (closer to a trillion USD), market may see tremendous upside.

Import Export:

Increase in dollar currency will depreciate its value against major currencies of the world. This will have impact on emerging markets that draw a good proposition of their national income from export. Weakening of dollar will make American products cheaper and emerging markets’ products expensive. This will reduce export to some extent.

Inflation:

It will also make the major import items such as Oil dearer as dollar is the currency for buying Oil. Needless to say, Oil prices impact everything and it is the driving factor of inflation. Emerging markets have been facing higher inflation for last few quarters. This will further increase it.

However, there are economists who expect the developed market to outperform emerging market in 2011. If this happens, a major part of QE2 money will be used within US. This may lessen the impact of QE2 money on emerging market.

Options before emerging market

Many countries have foreign capital control policy to slowdown the flow of speculative money and there is enough emphasis by emerging nations’ Government on controlling the foreign capital to avoid extreme situation.

CEAT achieved very good operational optimization by its cost cutting measures and some innovative rubber procurement initiatives. The company has a good brand name and its performance has been good.

The company is also focusing on radial tyres which will commence the development by December 2010 – January 2011 timeframe. This will grow to 30% of the market in 3 years.

The Business:

The tyre industry is very sensitive to the raw material cost. The cost of rubber (the key raw material for the tyre) has been spiralling for quite some time and this has impacted the profitability. However, even though the prices went up, CEAT managed the raw material costs very well. The bad news is that this price is not going to come down in next year too.

Hence while the company expects robust growth in the coming year, the cost of raw material will impact its bottom line and hence the top line growth will not be able to contribute to the bottom line in the same proportion.

The Financials:

The financials look reasonably good though there are extreme fluctuations. This is because of the thin margin that CEAT operates at. Any variation in cost of raw material impacts its bottom line. Let’s take a look at the data for last 5 years.

Based on these numbers, fundamental ratios were calculated. Here are the fundamental ratios:

We will discuss the numbers and list out the positive points and concern areas of CEAT Tyres. Let’s take the positive points first.

Positive Points:

• Revenue and profit growth (last 5 years CAGR) are good at 13% and 40% respectively.
• Reserve per share at 173 is more than the stock price.
• PEG ratio at 0.23 provides much scope for appreciation.
• The dividend, even though not consistent, looks good. Last year the dividend was Rs 4 per share. Dividend payout ratio has been very good.
• Book value is less than current market price. This is usually a sign underpriced stock. Though we cannot decide the investment worthiness of a company solely by this criterion.
• Cash flow from operation is positive and has been quite healthy for last 5 years.
• The revenue numbers for last 2 quarters show good growth. The revenue is about 1600 crore for last 2 quarters. If we take the same number for the next two quarters, the revenue growth year on year for the FY 2011 will be about 15%.

Concern Areas:

• The net profit margin is very erratic, ranging from negative to positive. Similarly, ROE is very erratic which is quite natural as ROE depends on net profit.
• The company has done great in 2010 by bringing the cost drastically down. The cost of raw material was 71% of the revenue in 2009 while it has come down to 66% in 2010. This is a major achievement. The cost of raw materials prior to 2009 was at around 67%. In fact the cost of raw materials has been the least in 2010 as a percentage of revenue.
• The projected EPS for the year FY2011 is about Rs 16. This is based on last 2 quarters EPS which is Rs 8. This is a major slump from FY2010 EPS which is Rs 47. Despite this the forward PE is less than 10.
• The free cash flow calculation shows extreme variation. This is not a good sign.

CEAT Tyres is a big brand and it has significant market share. However, the investor should not expect great returns immediately as there are some risks apart from the concern areas mentioned above.

Risks in investment

1. The auto sector may not see the same growth as it saw in 2010. The growth in 2011 will be much slower and this will impact the financials of CEAT.
2. Banks have already raised the auto loan interest rate. This will further impact the sales numbers of auto.
3. Petrol and diesel prices may go up (no surprises, it always goes up 2-3 times in a year).
4. Cost of rubber doesn’t seem to ease in near future and hence we will see erosion of margin to continue for few more quarters.

India is slated to grow at 7%-8% in near future and as the economy improves, auto sector will see much growth. However, there is concern that Indian growth story may see slowdown in near term. There is already anticipation that the Indian market may not perform very well in 2011. However, if India has to grow, the auto sector will grow and thus CEAT tyres will grow along with it.

Disclaimer: This site gives opinions on companies that trade on BSE and NSE. This doesn’t give any suggestion on whether to buy and sell. Investors are requested to go by their own judgment.

The company is mainly into three businesses:

1. Auto sealing system, Exterior and Interior protection and styling

2. Refrigeration components

3. Export of refrigeration and auto products as mentioned above.

The business model of Precision pipes is dependent on auto sector. Auto sector depends on the economy in general as people tend to but vehicles in good economy. The company has got its loyal clients in Maruti, Honda, and Toyota etc. In refrigeration, their client lists include Godrej, Samsung, LG, and almost everyone in refrigeration industry.

The company’s financials look reasonable. It has been growing at reasonable rate for last 5 years. Let’s take a look at the financials.

Based on these numbers, we got the following fundamental ratios:

We will analyse these numbers and list out positive points and concern areas to enable us understand the business, numbers, and decide accordingly on investment option.

Positive Points:

• Price looks reasonable. Book value is at 106 which is almost equal to its market value.
• Current ratio and quick ratio are fine showing good working capital management on the company’s part.
• Revenue and operating profit growth has been quite good for last 5 years at 20.72% and 24.53%.
• This is a good dividend paying company. The dividend yield is about 3% at this price. The dividend history is consistent.
• PEG ratio of 0.52 still shows some scope for appreciation.
• The market cap at 145 crore is 85% of annual sale. This is attractive.
• Cash flow and free cash flow are positive.

Concern Areas:

• ROE is bad. In fact it is going down from last 3 years. The company’s number of stocks outstanding went up in 2007 and that affected the ROE.
• The revenue and net profit in last 2 quarters have been at 93 core and 11.5 crore. Assuming the same performance in next 2 quarters, the value will be about 186 crore and 23 crore. The revenue growth is zero but the profit shows good growth. The EPS for the last 2 quarters is Rs 8.17. Hence the EPS for FY2011 could be about Rs 16 (assuming the same performance).

This looks little overpriced based on past data but when we consider the last 2 quarters data, the company looks a good target to buy.

We also did free cash flow valuation of the stock and the result is the following:

The fair price seems to be the current price with margin of safety. However, before we decide on buying the stock, we have to understand the following risks.

Risk Factor:

• The risk in this case could be macroeconomic. Auto sector is doing wonderful for quite some time and it will continue to do well as per current situation. The risk is high inflation. High inflation reduces the purchasing power of disposable income and hence people may take money out of these items.
• The other risk could be increasing strikes and labour unrest in auto companies. Disruption in auto production will impact the business of precision pipes.
• Rainfall, surprisingly, impacts the auto sector and refrigerators sale as well. Good rainfall increases income of villagers and there is overall growth in these markets. Precision pipes will be impacted by rainfalls.

Currently the auto sector and overall economic outlook looks excellent and this will remain so for sometimes to come. We have seen tremendous growth in auto sales in 2010. Based on this growth Maruti, Hyundai, Mahindra, Tata, and others are ramping up their production. This will prove good for the growth of precision pipes.

Disclaimer: This site gives opinions on companies that trade on BSE and NSE. This doesn’t give any suggestion on whether to buy and sell. Investors are requested to go by their own judgment.

We almost thought iGATE got it and then we got twist in the story from Vivek Paul, the formidable former vice chairman of Wipro. It will be interesting to know who finally wins the heart and mind of Patni management. There will be debate, discussions, and questions on strategic fit, building synergy, operational cost optimization, and almost all the issues that acquisition gives rise in the larger entity. In fact there is already debate on the personality of Phaneesh Murthy and Vivek Paul in economic times. I think this is expected because both Phaneesh Murthy and Vivek Paul are giants in Indian IT industry. Phaneesh Murthy, is known as another Murthy of Infosys while Vivek Paul has the formidable Performance in his favor when he took Wipro from a mere 150 million USD to 1500 million USD (pardon my round numbers).

In my view, both Phaneesh Murthy and Vivek Paul are institutions in themselves and that’s the reason why this battle is perceived between them and not between iGATE and Carlyle and Advent. This is altogether another natter that media exaggerates the story a little to add spice. What is the strategic fit for Patni computers in both of them. While it is true that Patni will be acquired by any of these firms, Patni computers will be the major partner in any case. It will be interesting to see the final outcome but till that happens, let’s see how the acquisition may work out.

Strategic Fit: In my view iGATE will be a better option as far as strategic fit is concerned. It serves the purpose of both Patni and iGATE. iGATE wants to be in the league of biggies with revenue of a billion USD. This fits pretty well. At the same time, both being in the same business will further expedite the synergy process.

Building Synergy: Patni is a large company and one of the pioneers in information technology while iGATE is a new company which grew fast owing, in a larger part, the personal caliber and efforts of Phaneesh Murthy. Building synergy between a 30 years old organization with a relatively much newer organization will not be easy task. Moreover, how iGATE will integrate a three times bigger entity is a moot question. In case of Carlyle and Advent, it will mainly have off hand approach and Patni management will keep managing it. Vivek Paul may have mainly strategic role than involving in operational work. This combination can play well as Patni has a strong management team and this, led by Vivek Paul, can do great.

Business Growth: The revenue of iGATE is falling for last 3 years. It has gone down from $284m in 2006 to $193m in 2009. Though the net profit has shown good growth in these 3 years, there isn’t any more scope for cost optimization. If there are inherent problem (it could be slow market, economies of scale and scope, attrition), acquisition will not help. iGATE will have to work on the problems and improve the topline. This year looks good for iGATE. In last 3 quarters, till Sep, 2010, the company has shown revenue of $200m and hope to be in $250m-$280m range. Adding Patni’s revenue of $600-$700m, the combined entity can touch the billion dollar mark.

Operational Cost Optimization: This will certainly be the case with iGATE acquisition. There are many areas where the combined entity can create synergy and thus wealth for the shareholders.

The battle is still on.